The Robots Are Winning

Checking in on President Trump's key promise about manufacturing jobs.

My former colleague Kat emailed yesterday with a line that reached back to an earlier interview we’d done: “The robots are winning.” She attached a headline that reads:

Hyundai plans to offset tariffs by deploying humanoid robots at its U.S. plants.

That wasn’t just a joke. It was a verdict on one of the central economic promises of the second Trump term.

She was quoting Brookings manufacturing expert Darrell West, whom I interviewed at the start of President Trump’s second term as he launched a tariff strategy built on a promise: higher import taxes would bring back manufacturing jobs and raise wages.

When president Trump announced his sweeping tariff program he promised: “jobs and factories will come roaring back into our country.” His Treasury Secretary explained the tariff program this way: “the goal here is to bring back the high-quality industrial jobs to the U.S.” The Commerce secretary got more detailed: “The army of millions and millions of human beings screwing in little screws to make iPhones -- that kind of thing is going to come to America.” [Footnote addressing this claim]

When I first interviewed West, he was skeptical because the manufacturing sector had seen a long-term decline in jobs, in part, due to automation. Even if more factories started in the US to avoid tariffs, the jobs might not follow.

When I talked with West again several months later in September in 2025, his conclusion was that “The robots are doing great.” Manufacturing Productivity was up, capital expenditures were up, but jobs and wages were not up. The sector had lost roughly 78,000 jobs year-to-date through August 2025. The spending increase was going to robots. (We turned it into a Reporter’s Notebook).

Now the Wall Street Journal has taken a look. The cover story a few days ago “ U.S. Manufacturing Is in Retreat and Trump’s Tariffs Aren’t Helping: Levies on imports were supposed to bring back a golden age of U.S. manufacturing. They haven’t worked, so far.”

The journal writes:

“Manufacturers shed workers in each of the eight months after Trump unveiled “Liberation Day” tariffs, according to federal figures, extending a contraction that has seen more than 200,000 roles disappear since 2023.

By December 2025, the U.S. manufacturing sector employed approximately 68,000 to 70,000 fewer workers than it had a year prior.¹ End of year numbers show an increase in expenditures on robots.²

White House economist Kevin Hassett argues firms “aren’t turning on the machines.” But productivity gains and rising automation investment point to a sector where the machines are on and capital, not humans, is driving output.

The job promise never fit the trajectory of the industry. Modern manufacturing growth increasingly raises output through automation rather than labor expansion — a long-running shift experts like Darrell West had already identified.

But the political pledge was about workers, not production. It was sold as a return of jobs, wages, and broad-based prosperity. That outcome has not materialized. Public polling now shows widespread dissatisfaction with the administration’s economic performance, especially on prices.³

On the president’s signature issue — tariffs that were supposed to bring jobs “roaring back” — the measurable result so far is this: employment has not rebounded

The jobs aren’t coming. The robots are coming.

1. Manufacturing job losses in 2025 are detailed in the Manufacturing Dive Analysis, which reports 8,000 roles shed in December for a year-over-year total of 68,000. This is corroborated by the Cato Institute Economic Review, which utilizes BLS data to show a nearly 70,000-worker decline since 2024.

2. Data sourced from the Association for Advancing Automation (A3) annual market report, “North American Robot Orders Rise in 2025,” released February 4, 2026. Key findings include:

• Year-End Totals: North American companies ordered 36,766 robots in 2025, a 6.6% increase in units and a 10.1% increase in revenue (totaling $2.25 billion) over 2024.

• Strong Q4 Finish: The fourth quarter of 2025 saw 10,325 robots ordered, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.

• Sector Shifts: Non-automotive sectors led the market with 59% of all orders by Q3 2025, including a 105% year-over-year jump in the food and consumer goods industries.

• Collaborative Robots (Cobots): This segment expanded to capture a nearly 20% share of total units ordered by year-end.

3. As the second year of the administration begins, public sentiment reflects growing frustration over persistent inflation and the personal impact of trade policies. According to a January 2026 AP-NORC poll, about half of registered voters believe the president’s policies have made life “less affordable”. This dissatisfaction is echoed in a Harvard CAPS/Harris poll, where approval for the handling of inflation dropped to 39%, tying with tariffs and trade policy for the lowest rating across all major issues. Further concerns about economic priorities were highlighted in a CBS News/YouGov survey, which found that 70% of Americans believe there has not been enough focus on lowering prices, despite the administration’s public claims of an “economic boom”. Additionally, a Fox News survey revealed that 60% of voters disapprove of the current tariff policies, with roughly 4 in 10 reporting that these economic measures have “hurt” them personally.